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I am 33 years old and my name is Weldon Rhyne.<br>I life in Hardenberg (Netherlands).<br><br><br>Question and Answer SessionOperator Thank you, sir. Please go ahead. Keith Walsh Citi Hey, good morning everybody. First question for Cory I'm not sure if I missed this in the commentary, but can you just remind us, the bonus program how much did that impact EPS and margins in the quarter, and how do you accrue for it? Is it accrued on a quarterly basis? If you could just give us some color around that, and then I've got a follow-up.<br>Cory Walker Yes. It is accrued on a quarterly basis. This quarter, in the third quarter, we increased it by $1.9 million. We expect for the whole year it to be between 6 and $8 million, and I think we're on track for that, so that's it. Keith Walsh CitiOkay.<br>And then secondly, just for Powell, Arrowhead seems to be growing, doing very well, Can you just talk a little bit about what's going on there? Is there a business mix or a geography issue why it seems to be doing better than maybe other parts of retail? Good morning, Keith. I will tell you that what we're seeing is, number one, we buy businesses and invest in businesses because they have good people, and good people develop and run good businesses and attract more good people.<br>And so over a long period of time, Arrowhead has developed a reputation for doing a very good job in running programs for our strategic partners that we work with there at Arrowhead. That's the first thing. The second thing is they work, as you know, in three or four areas that are not easy to work in, so their four big markets prior to the addition to the automobile aftermarket program are California quake, both residential and commercial, non-standard auto, and workers' compensation in California.<br>So those are not easy classes of business to begin with, and so we haveso there's lot ofit's discombobulated in many of those markets which creates an opportunity for us. Then enter the opportunity with Zurich on top of that, which as Cory said is going to be a 20 to $25 million revenue piece for us next year, and we're going to start getting revenue this month but we really think it will start flowing in really come 1/1, and that 20 to 25 will really start next year on a run rate. And so there are alsofinally Keith, there are some carriers who we believe see us as an option to efficiently distribute their product in a manner that maybe they would be doing it a little differently. That doesn't mean it's bad; it just means they would do it a little differently than we could with our technology platform and the distribution force and our agents. And so we think all of that is very positive, and we're very pleased with the acquisition, and as you know we're really pleased with organic growth at 13% for the quarter. Operator Our next question comes from Sarah Dewitt with Barclays. Sarah Dewitt Barclays Capital Hi, good morning. When I exclude some of the unusual timing issues from programs, I get organic growth in the quarter of about 1.7%. So how long do you think it will take you to get back to mid-single digit organic growth, and is that the right level to be thinking about in terms of when you can start expanding the margins? Powell Brown Well if you remember, Sarah, in September at an investor conference, we said that we anticipated internal growth to be in the range of the first and second quarter for the second half of the year that'd be Q3 and Q4.<br>And as Cory said, actually when you look inside some of our numbers, we actually have improvement in margins in areas already, but in aggregate remember, we say what it is, we take the good with the challenges it is basicallyas Cory said, it's 35% EBITDA versus 35.4%. Well, if you go back into what Cory said, there's just one line item that I would direct you to that's 1.9 million of additional expense that was accrued this quarter. That's all you've got to look at, and so there's already improvement.<br>And we believe that as we continue to grow, assuming the economy does what we hope Sarah, so if you've got something that we don't know about, that'd be great; but we think that we can continue to see incremental improvement, and as we grow our business organically more quickly, that will help us lift the margins more quickly. Sarah Dewitt Barclays Capital Okay. And then on the sales incentive program, do you expect to start up another incentive program next year? Powell Brown The answer is we don't know yet, but I said a year ago and I've said repeatedly that we would like to continue to do things that stimulate desired performance, and we are going to pay those people who help us drive this company to the next level. So you can interpret that any way you want, but I have said that our program is a one-year plan and we're not going to be doing the same plan next year, but we reserve the right to do something that would stimulate growth in less dollars over an extended period of time.<br>Sarah Dewitt Barclays Capital Okay, great. Thanks for the answers. Operator Our next question comes from Greg Locraft with Morgan Stanley. Greg Locraft Morgan StanleyHi, good morning. What's your appetite to buy back stock versusit sounds like there's going to be a pickup in M&A in the very near future.<br>How do you guys think about capital deployment? Powell Brown Well Greg, we don't like to use the terms never or always; however, up to this point effectively we've never done a stock buyback except when you talk about an employee stock purchase plan, which is being technical.<br><br>But we have always thought that we were better off to hold our cash and we thought that we would be able to deploy those in high quality investment opportunities to grow our business. So that's a nice way of saying we don't think that hard about stock buybacks. I would not like to say never or always, as I said again, but we're focused on taking our earnings, paying out an appropriate amount in dividends and keeping the rest in the bucket so we can invest it in our business. Greg Locraft Morgan Stanley Okay. And then back to M&A, in the commentary you sort of alluded tois it because of the change in, or potential change in tax regime would result in effectively more deals being closed in the fourth quarter, or how should we be thinking about M&A because it sounds like that should be picking up. Powell Brown Well here's what I would say, Greg first of all, we've been in situation where there has been potential changes in taxor tax reform and changes before in the last several years and never seemed to get much lift. And so there's a lot of commentary around the presidential campaign, as we would all imagine, and so I don't believe anything, and we don't believe anything until its done.<br>But I would say that there is an increased interest in potentially combining with a larger firm like ours out there, and so we are talking to everybody as we always do, as I said earlier. The acquisition pipeline is always good, and you can ask me a year from now and it will probably be good, just like it was good a year ago.<br>But people sell their businesses at different times for different reasons, and the good thing about it is we can buy them. We have the cash to do it, number one. We do what we say and say what we do, and we do it quickly; and so that's known and people appreciate that. That doesn't mean they have to culturally fit with us or anything else like that, but we are one that we can do it if we want to, and so that's a good thing and we feel very positive about the outlook between now and the end of the year, and into next year. I don't think it's a next 90-day thing; that's not what I'm saying. I just think that there's a lot of activity, and we didn't do that many in the third quarter and I hope to do more, and we hope to do more in the fourth quarter. Greg Locraft Morgan Stanley Okay, great. Thanks a lot. Operator Our next question comes from Arash Soleimani with Stifel Nicolaus. Arash Soleimani Stifel NicolausHi, good morning. Just a few quick questions. The Zurich business, the aftermarket program, to what extent do you expect that to impact the margins within the programs division, and how long do you think it would take for those margins to sort of catch up with the existing program division margin? Powell Brown Well, we basically said that on that 20 to $25 million of revenue for the first two years, that it's going to be probably about a 10% margin; and then we think that that will move up into the more normal range. But we're very pleased. There is, I think it's 150 teammates that joined us through that. About 90 to 100 are in Kansas City. I was there a week and a half ago and met all of our teammates, and so we're very pleased with that. And what also happens is as we grow the business, because Zurich has said they want to double the business in five years, that that will also help us lift the margin. So there's a couple good things going on there. Arash Soleimani Stifel Nicolaus Great, thanks. And also in terms of your employee benefits business, we've seen Arthur J. Gallagher partner with a corporate exchange recently, and we're seeing Aon working on one. Are you seeing within your own clients any desire to sort of join a corporate exchange, and if so, do you guys have a strategy for the long term there? Powell Brown Yeah, no, no. We actuallythere are other firms, as you have alluded to, that have created their own exchanges. We have taken the position that we're not going to form our own exchange, and I'm not as familiar with those other organizations, what they're doing. But we are not in the risk-bearing business. We do not want to be in the risk-bearing business. What we want to be able to do is evaluate options for our clients and propose solutions. One of those might be going to an exchange, and if in fact they go to an exchange, then we will probably get paid either in a traditional manner or maybe in some way that is yet to be developed. But we are evaluating the cost of going to those exchanges on behalf of our customers. We are talking about options when it gets to 2014, but as we've said before, we do not want to be a risk-bearer and we believe that there will be a multitude of options that we will be able to bring to bear for our customers. So we think options are good, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket. Arash Soleimani Stifel Nicolaus Okay, thanks. And then lastly, from the last two releases I know there's been some kind of reallocation between retail programs, both wholesale and services. Is that available for the fourth quarter of '11 somewhereCory Walker You know, I'm not really sure I follow what you'reoh, are you referring to the fact that we have retail as just one segment? Arash Soleimani Stifel NicolausJust in the last couple quarters with the releases, it looks like some of the commissions within the segments have sort of been restated or shifted a little bit when we look back at the prior year. Cory Walker Yeah, okay, I understand. I understand what you're saying that's right. There waswe had three small programs that were in the program side that moved over into the wholesale segment, but basically at the end of this year, it's over. You'll basically have all the numbers. It's not a lot of movement, but it was three small operations. Arash Soleimani Stifel Nicolaus Okay, so we should wait until Cory Walker Yeah, you know, the quarters will show you those restated numbers. It's not a huge amount. Arash Soleimani Stifel Nicolaus Okay. And within wholesale, is the slowdown in the organic, is that all related to business going from the standardyou know, a slower shift in business from the standard market to the E&S market, or is that still progressing pretty well? Powell Brown Yes, it's progressing well. What I think it's a function of simplyI mean, this is oversimplified, but pretty simply stated it's the rate at which the renewals are going up year-over-year are moderating, and so remember you hear about rate increases in the standard market, and the pressure on rates on the standard market has not been going on as long as it has in the E&S market. So what I mean by that is using the investment community's vernacular, they've been up year-over-year substantially in the E&S space, so the comps become a little tougher. Not bad I'm just saying they become a little tougher, and rates aren't going up as much, so that moderates the growth on the top line. Arash Soleimani Stifel Nicolaus Okay, great. Thank you so much for your time. Operator We'll take our next question from Josh Shanker with Deutsche Bank. Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Yes, thank you very much. My question is first of all, the earthquake program at Arrowhead, when did that incept and how many quarters will you getting organic growth out of that? Powell Brown Well, we did the acquisition of Arrowhead on January 9 of 2012, so effectively organic growth will actually start next January, meaning the first quarter of next year with Arrowhead. Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Yeah, embedded in that, though, as an adjustment you also in addition to the Zurich program started an earthquake program since acquiring Arrowhead? Powell Brown No, no, no. No, we have a residential quake program and a commercial quake program, and I don't know where you're picking that up but we have notthose were programs that Cory Walker Those are programs that Arrowhead has had for years Powell Brown Yeah. Cory Walker --and so that'sbut when you compare the internal growth numbers that I gave you, if you just take their numbers when they weren't part of us and compare it to the third quarter numbers, and you do an internal growth schedule just for them independently, that's 13%.<br>And the growth of that came from primarily the earthquake program and the DIC, and part of that reason is, as you'll remember, back in the late summer there was all these swarms of earthquake that kind of hit southern California, and any time the earth starts to move, you obviously get people that start saying, eh, maybe I ought to be buying earthquake. So it basically is internal growth there, not new program development. Powell Brown We are working on new programs there all the time, but just as a clarification, both quake programs are longstanding programs. Cory Walker Right, and the auto aftermarket, it will begin showing new revenue for Arrowhead a little bit in October, but it will really start in November and December. Now, from an official internal growth schedule, we will continuewhatever revenue they get from that auto aftermarket in November and December are going to be lumped into Arrowhead's quote acquired revenues, and so won't really reflect as internal growth for this year. Next year when Arrowhead now is with us 12 months, we're going to be showing their total numbers as compared to the numbers that they reported in 2012, and that will be part of our internal growth.<br>For the fourth quarter, we'll do a similar thing we did just now, that we'll tell you what Arrowhead's internal growth was on a standalone basis so you'll have essentially both numbers. Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Understood, understood. And justit's a small point, but I'm trying to model that 1 Q '13 growth number in programs. The buying habits that increase the amount of earthquake purchasing which has led to a lot of the growth at Arrowhead, I assume that after one year or so, that will probably decelerate, or maybe I'm mistaken that that will persist for a while.<br><br>Or should I think that Arrowhead will have 13% growth plus Zurich in 1 Q '13? Powell Brown No, no, no. Rememberwell, like I said, when we acquired that business, we said and you may recall that we thought that business could grow at mid to high single digits. That's what we said. So they had an exceptional quarter, number one. Number two, to answer your question specifically, what increases the buying habits of people buying earthquake coverage? So if in fact there is an earthquake, the number of people that buy earthquake coverage will go up dramatically. You would find it interesting that in earthquake zones, I have been told by our teammates, that typically only around 13 to 15% of people in those zones buy earthquake coverage, and so in the event that there is a claimI mean, if there was an event, more people will buy earthquake coverage.<br>That's number one. And so longwinded answer of saying that they may have earthquake coverage placed elsewhere and they can't get the appropriate limits, or maybe the terms and conditions on our program are better than the program that they have. Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Understood, understood.<br>And then one final question on Zurich can you talk a little bit about how it came to be that you struck up the relationship with Zurich? Powell Brown Okay, so Josh, what you've just heard us describe is unprecedented. So I don't know of anybody picking up a programnot that it hasn't happened, but I can't think of one off the top of my head.<br>So I don't want you to think that this is some emerging trend. We would love it to be an emerging trend with us and we are capable of doing it because we've got the platform to do it now; however, we have had a longstanding relationship with Zurich as an organization.<br>With the acquisition of Arrowhead, that relationship almost doubled in size, and then on top of that this came on top. So we've had a very good relationship with that strong partner over a long period of time and it's grown substantially in terms of volume over the last year via the acquisition of Arrowhead and us picking up this program to distribute on their behalf.<br>Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Did they propose it to you or did you propose it to them? Powell Brown Theywell, let's put it this way: we're always talking to our strategic partners about how to grow our businesses, so I might say that could be a mutual discussion. Cory Walker And you know, the bottom line is that Arrowhead was able to show Zurich that we can better distribute their product and more efficiently and allow them to focus on the underwriting.<br>And so it's a win-win all the way around, so it worked very well. Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Very good. Well, more win-wins coming your way. Powell Brown Hopefully! Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank Good. Operator Our next question comes from Matthew Heimermann with JP Morgan. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan Hi, good morning everybody. I think most things have been covered. Just one quick numbers question and then a question about next year. With respect to Zurich, just curious if you could give us a sense in terms of a how the revenue progresses quarter to quarter, is there any seasonality in the revenue that we need to think about; and two, just for modeling expense purposes, how much of the expenses are kind of S&B versus G&A, just a rough sense? You've talked to margins, but just curious of the expense makeup.<br>Cory Walker You know, I'll tell you we're going through the budget process right now for next year, so quite frankly I don't have that kind of detail yet. We'll be going through that, but there are preliminary estimates. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan Okay, that's fair. And then just when we think about growth for next year, I'd be curious whether or notif we're going to see further growth improvement next year, how much from your perspective is rates versus the economy? In other words, I guess as youwell, put another way, did you feel like the economy is the more important factor to growing your business next year, or pricing? Powell Brown The former. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan Okay. Powell Brown And remember, Matt, just to go back, throughout this period of time, we've said that exposure units made up probably 75% of the economic downdraft when we came through the last four and a half or five years, and 25% would be rates.<br>I would tell you that that's typically the same. You can have little nuances where someone else earlier alluded to more accounts flowing into the E&S market in certain segments yes, that helps on a temporary basis. But if you want the macro effect, we are a business, as you know, that is a proxy for the middle market economy, so as the economy improves, that helps our business improve. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan And then just with respectI guess I'm thinking Florida more specifically, but I guess you could take this generally too.<br>How important or material going forward is the fact that kind of the housing industry looks to be stabilizing? I say Florida because obviously that potentially has some implications, both consumer and business there; but more broadly as I kind of think about contractors, other small businesses that potentially cater to that end market.<br>Powell Brown Yeah, well if you think about it let's go back to an interesting statistic and then I'll answer that question. If you look at all the economic recovery since 1945 in the United States of America, the southeastern United States has led it out every time, and housing has been a big part of that relative to the construction and investment in our individual communities around in the southeastern United States.<br>In this particular economic recovery, as you know, based on Federal Reserve data, the southeastern United States was the last of the Fed segments to lead out in terms of growth that's number one. Number two, the construction business is lumpy in places like Florida specifically, and I go into offices and ask people, how are your contractors doing, and some of them say they're doing well and they see upticks; some of them are down a little bit.<br>But the prevailing thing, Matt, is this: they don't have a lot of work in the pipeline nine months out, and that's what scares people. That doesn't mean there won't be more work; I'm just saying they don't have a good clear view into the next, let's say, two years. In prior cycles, you'd have a one and a half, a two-year pipeline for really good contractors.<br>So I would tell you that the economy seems to be better here in Florida. People feel good. If you go to a restaurant, you'd see a lot of people in a restaurant out on a Wednesday or Thursday or Friday night. And the thing I like to say, and I know this resonates with you particularly in New York, is in February at 4:30 in the afternoon on a Thursday, it's going to be dark and cold in New York City.<br>On that same Thursday at 4:30 in the afternoon, it's going to be sunny and beautiful here in Florida, and we have a somewhat more attractive tax climate here. And so what I mean by that is people are going to want to continue to come to Florida, and so that bodes well for the housing industry and people will have to build homes and condos, and so I think that's a positive thing long term.<br>It's just slower in the recovery than any of us would like, but we're just doing our part and trying to sell insurance and do all the best things we can for our existing customers and our new customers. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan That's helpful. And then that nine-month visibility, I'd just be curious how that compares to the beginning of the year.<br><br>Powell Brown I would say it's similar, Matt, and let me give you an example. Let me give you a real example. I have a friend who runs a large contractor, and this is in the southeastern United States, and they were very large before the slowdown and they came down to maybe a third of their size, okay, at the peak. And now, they are probably about half of their size when they were at the peak, and they don't have one thing in the pipe nine months from now not one, and that scares them.<br>It would scare me too. And this is a firm that is a very fine firm, and they literallyyou know, mid-2000, they'd have two years of stacked up work coming out their ears. That's just one example, but I'm just saying that's not that uncommon. Matthew Heimermann JP Morgan Okay, thank you for that.<br>Operator We'll take our next question from Ray Iardella with Macquarie. Ray Iardella Macquarie Thanks and good morning. First question, I guess is there anything to really read into the level of divested revenues of, I guess, through the first three quarters? I guess looking at it, $9 million compared to $4.3 million last year, and then 2 million the year before. Cory Walker No, we did have some rather large books that we did decide that it was best to sell at the beginning of the year, but you have those things here and there and it's just this year was just a few larger ones.<br><br>Ray Iardella Macquarie Okay. The other thing to maybe, Powell, to go into your commentary last quarter about the difference in pricing between regionals versus nationals, is that something you're still seeing, and maybe could you try to quantify the spread generally speaking? So yes, I think there continues to be a difference, and it can be pronounced, Ray, on some accounts and it can not pronounced on other accounts. So let me give you an example. Let's pick a good one you might have a food distributor.<br><br>Not everybody wants food distributors, but if you had a food distributor and the national carrier wanted a 10% rate increase, and the regional carrier felt good about food distributors in their so-called region of the country, they may do it for flat, they may do it for 3%, 5%, up, or in some instances they might go down on the rate. So I don't think there's one way to sayI hate to say that, Ray, because you can't give any specifics. It's more generalizations, but I would tell you that typically regional companies are more competitive than national companies if they want to be, particularly on certain classes of business in areas around the country. I would say, the pricingthere's not one statement, it's 5% difference.<br><br>It's not like that. It could be the same on a bunch of accounts. They could be 10% less, they could be closer than that, but it just depends on the account, the loss experience, where you are in the country. Ray Iardella Macquarie Got it, okay. That's a fair statement.<br>The other thing maybe, Cory, going back to your commentary about contingents and guaranteed supplementals, just curious I mean, is kind of what you're thinking about is all else equal, if the loss ratio of your risk-bearing partners stayed the same from this year to next year, contingents should actually increase just given the switch from supplementals to contingents? Is that the right way to think about itCory Walker On that portion of it, because basically the carriers that used to pay us GSC s, they stopped paying us GSC s this year so they'll calculate what the contingent amount would have been earned for this year and they're going to pay it in 2013. But since it's loss ratio based, you could have a big loss at the end of the year and therefore we can't accrue it and we have to wait. So theoretically, if everything stays the same, we do what we think we should do, those GSC s that quote were eliminated from the current year 2012 revenue should naturally flow into the contingencies. Ray Iardella Macquarie Okay, that's helpful.<br>The only other question and maybe a quick numbers question the facultative reinsurance program that you had referenced, how large is that usually on an annual basis in terms of revenues? Powell Brown That business is about $3.5 million Cory Walker But 2 million now.<br>Ray Iardella MacquarieOkay. Thanks again for all your answers. Operator Our next question comes from Brett Huff with Stevens Incorporated. Brett Huff Stevens Good morning Powell and Cory. A couple quick questions a lot of this stuff has been gone over. I just want to dive into the organic growth question again.<br>Cory, just remind me if these numbers are right so wholesale, you said, was 1.1 million of organic growth this quarter versus 3.4 last quarter. Is that right? Cory Walker That's correct. Brett Huff StevensSo that's about roughly 100 basis points, and you mentioned that you thought that would stay lower, or you thought it'd be sort of in a similar range in 4 Q. But then I think you also said, and Powell, you may have alluded to this, that the rate increases are maybe switching more from wholesale to more regular admitted business. Did I hear that right? So could that pick up some of the rate slack? Powell Brown No, no, no. The implication is remember, there's been pretty significant rate pressure for a longer period of time, Brett, on the wholesale segment, and I was trying to give you the nuance of saying the rates in that segment are coming down now, and so the year-over-year comparisons are different.<br>In the standard market, the rates have not been going up as long, but still rates are in some lines of business up, but they could be moderating too, we believe, into next year. That's what we were saying. Brett Huff Stevens Okay. And then Cory, on the Proctor, it was a swing of 1.2 million of organic growth in 2 Q and a $300,000 decline this year, so a $1.5 million or so. You mentioned that a good chunk of that would flow in in 4 Q. Am I hearing that right? Cory Walker Well yes, and exactly how much of that flows in is still in large part dependent upon how the clients process it. So clearly the $300,000 that's down for this quarter just from prior year, and then some level of that will flow in higher, so it's going to be somewhere above 300,000, up to a million. Brett Huff Stevens Okay. And then in terms of the Zurich business, Powell, you talked about the margins are going to kind of evolve on that. Is there anything different in howwhen you use Arrowhead's distribution capability to go from the 150 million or so that I think that business is now to double that, that incremental dollar of revenue shouldn't have a characteristic certainly any lower than your existing incremental margins, or maybe it should be higher? Is that fair? Powell Brown I think that you're moving in the right direction.<br><br>Brett Huff Stevens Okay, so I'm just curious when you say that they might be 10 to 15% margins for the first couple years, that seems like that would assume pretty minimal growth. Powell Brown Well like I said, we havelike I said, we have as you know, an arrangement in taking over this program which would probably have the margins stay in that area with nominal growth. If the growth is quicker, then we don't know what those are.<br><br>We're not trying to evasive, but we're trying to basically say this is what we know. Cory Walker You know, as Powell mentioned, we've got about $165 million in premium in this program. The people that were Zurich employees that are now going to become Arrowhead Brown & Brown employees, that is a set number. We believe that we can double that program with the folks who are now joining us from Zurich plus the folks that are currently at Zurich. We can grow that without adding anything else, and so over time as we grow the program to double, the margins will move up correspondingly. Brett Huff Stevens Okay. And then in terms ofCory, I think you called sort of an estimate on the incremental margins on the retail business, and was it 50% was kind of your assumption? Is that right? Cory Walker Yes, on the internal growth dollars, I'm just using a hypothetical 50%. And then on the sell business, I've kind of thrown in at 80%, which may be a little aggressive but Powell Brown Hey Brett, I also wanted to clarify I think the program premium is about 140.<br>Brett Huff Stevens Oh, okay. Powell Brown I could be wrong, but it's somewhere in between the 140 andlet's say, I'm thinking it's 140. But one way or the other, it's a very big program and we're very pleased. Brett Huff Stevens Okay. And Cory, on those incremental margins for retail, it's that incremental margin, given that you have the distribution channel in place in retail, incremental dollars should happily mostly flow to the bottom line? Cory Walker That's right, that's right. You know, this is a little bit different than what Ithe number I'm using here is kind of a conservative number, and I know that we had talked about how our leverage in retail can be higher than that on the first incremental dollar, and then as time goes on we may have to add another CSR or something like that.<br>But for this purpose, I'm just kind of using some rounded numbers just to kind of prove out the margin growth. So you can play with it whichever you think, but that's kind of what I've used right now. Brett Huff Stevens Okay. That's what I needed. Thanks for your time, guys.<br><br>Operator We'll take our next question from Eric Fraser with Goldman Sachs. Eric Fraser Goldman Sachs Hi, thanks. Two quick follow-ups first, on the economy. Can you talk a little bit more about the middle market? It sounds like exposures are mostly flat, but can you talk about where you're seeing some improvement that could drive the retail growth?<br>Powell Brown Sure. Let's start by saying where is itthere are some obvious and maybe some not so obvious places where it's challenged, and then let's talk about where you're going to see upticks. Remember historically, people would say Florida, Michigan, the southwestern United States, all places that we have large concentrations of business would be tough areas to operate.<br>It's not good, but it's better. In southwest Florida Fort Myers, Naples area, the economy is a lot tougher down there than a lot of people realize and think, because you think that there's a lot of people that retire from the midwest that are well-to-do and therefore the economy has to be good, and it's just not that good.<br>Conversely, when you sayyou know, when I said in the midwest, which includes Michigan, we're seeing uptick in exposure units in a lot of our offices you know, 4, 5, 6, 8%. So I think, Eric, to answer your question, I think it's more of a broad-based scenario where we benefit from exposure increases in and around New York City.<br><br>We benefit from exposure increases in the Pacific northwest. We benefit from in Florida anywhere. You know, the Pacific northwest was the last to go into the slowdown and they are probably one of the last to come out, and so places like Portland that have still a very significantly high unemployment rate, but businesses seem to be doing better there.<br>Eric Fraser Goldman SachsSure, okay. That makes sense. And then back to the bonus incentive comp plan, how much of the growth this year would you attribute to that plan? Or said another way, would growth have been lower if you didn't have that plan in place this year? Powell Brown We don't know the exact answer to that, but what is important, Eric, that you know is this: there are a lot of our teammates that have worked really hard over the last five years and they have kept every single one of their accounts, and the size of their books of businesses have shrunk because of shrinking exposure units.<br>So we haven't broken it out, but I can tell you either way, we're happy with the results. Eric Fraser Goldman SachsRight. Cory Walker And I think you've a producer force that is very, very focused. Eric Fraser Goldman SachsAnd then one last one, if I could just in terms of the services growth there, can that pace of internal growth continue going forward? Powell Brown I don't know.<br>We'd like to think so. We've got some great leaders in there, but once again, it's lumpier in that space and so I don't know the answer to that. We think we can grow organically; we just don't know if it can replicate those that have been released the last two quarters. Eric Fraser Goldman SachsSure thing. Operator And we'll take our final question from Chris Likum ph with William Blair.<br><br>Chris Likum William Blair Hi, good morning. Just two quick ones for you guys I might have missed this in your initial commentary, but on audit premiums, what kind of general trends are you guys seeing, and when do you think that could become sort of a tailwind? Are you thinking they could turn positive next year?<br><br>Powell Brown Yeah, what we're seeing is we're beginning on some accounts to see additional premiums, which is positive, and we're not seeing as many significant return premiums. And all of those are not concurrent or April 1 or October 1. They come in April 15, April 1, April 30, any time you have an effective date. So I would say that the trend, if the economy continues to do what it seems to be doing, if it continues to perk along and go up, I think that's positive on that.<br>Chris Likum William Blair Okay, great. And then just wanted to get into benefits real quick. What general percent would you give as a percent of total retail business is the benefits practice, and then what sort of demand environment are you seeing on that front, and that is a headwind or a tailwind for organic and retail business?<br>Powell Brown Okay. Last year we did $608 million of core revenue in retail. There was 190 million of employee benefits in there. This year, we're probably on a run rate of about 230 in employee benefits. Chris Likum William Blair Okay. Powell Brown That's number one.<br><br>Number two, we think employee benefits right now is a very positive thing to internal growth. We are talking to all of our existing customers and specifically new customers about it because there's all kind of confusion around healthcare reform and what happens when, and who does what and who's responsible for what, and how do I get fined if this happens or do I get fined.<br>And so a lot of it is we have to hold our customer's hand, which is what we do, and educate them and walk them through the process to get them what's in the best interest of their teammates. And so we see it as a very positive thing. Chris Likum William Blair Great.<br>And then you said rates were contracting in the small lives market. How much of your benefits business would you put in small lives, or it's just Powell Brown No, no, not contracting. I said they were up 5 to 10%. Chris Likum William Blair Okay. I thought you said there was pressure on rates in the small. Powell Brown No, pressure upwards sorry. Upward pressure, I meant. Yeah, but I'm going to answer the question specifically.<br>Of the $190 million of revenue last year, about a third of that business was ancillary business, so call that group life, group dental, group vision, disability, et cetera. Of that two-thirds that are left, just over half of that is large group that's in excess of 50 lives. That's number one.<br><br>Number two, we are seeing in smaller businesses, particularly blue collar businesses, where people are just dropping the coverage. So there are people that are good, hardworking citizens, but they basically say this is just too crazy and they just drop the coverage.<br>We're seeing that too. Chris Likum William Blair Okay, very helpful. Thanks a lot. Operator And there are no further questions. Powell Brown Yes, thank you Lisa. No additional remarks. I hope everybody has a wonderful quarter and we look forward to talking to you after Q4. Good day. Operator And that concludes today's teleconference.<br>Thank you for your participation.<br><br>Feel free to visit my weblog ... [http://is.gd/UcHU3p Cheap Dental plans]
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